James Trescothick

Fundamental Analysis for Commodities

The Two Most Important Words when it comes to trading commodities are: Supply and Demand! That’s what moves commodity prices plain and simple. Let’s dive in… Types of Commodities We can group commodities into three main categories: Soft Commodities, are agricultural goods like: Cotton, Coffee, Cocoa, Wheat, Soybeans Metals, including: Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum Energies, the big movers: WTI Oil, Brent Crude, Natural Gas Soft Commodities (Agriculture) These are crops and crops depend on weather. Was it a good harvest? Droughts? Floods? You can find updates from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Also, which countries produce these commodities? Take coffee beans, major producers include: Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, Indonesia Ask yourself: Is there civil unrest? Are there export bans? What’s the local economy like? Example: When the conflict in Ukraine (a major wheat producer) started, global wheat supply dropped and prices spiked. Then look at demand: Is there rising global consumption? Any new uses for the commodity? Metals Ask: What is this metal used for? Is demand rising or falling? There are two main roles metals play: 1. Safe-Haven Metals Gold is the classic safe-haven. In times of war, recession, or uncertainty, investors flee to safety. Other safe-haven assets include: USD, JPY, CHF, and of course — gold. “When the world looks uncertain, gold tends to shine.” 2. Industrial Metals Copper is a great example also known as “Dr. Copper” because of its close ties to economic growth. It’s used in construction, electronics, and manufacturing. Check supply too: Who mines the metal? Are there labour strikes, political issues, or regulatory crackdowns affecting supply? Energies (Oil & Gas) These commodities drive the world, literally and economically. Ask: Who produces oil and gas? What’s happening in those regions? Example: Middle East tensions? Markets react quickly. Russia’s gas exports were heavily impacted by sanctions during the Ukraine war. Then there’s OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. They can increase or cut production, which moves oil prices significantly both at the pump and in the market. And finally, demand. Is the global economy growing? Is industry active? Are airlines flying more? Are factories ramping up? In boom times, demand rises. In slowdowns, demand and prices drop. Final Thought: When it comes to commodities, always come back to: Supply and Demand. That’s what drives the

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Fundamental Analysis for Stocks

When analyzing stocks, you’re essentially asking one question: “Is this company worth investing in based on how it’s actually performing?” Unlike technical analysis (which looks at price charts and trends), fundamental analysis digs into the company’s actual business performance, financials, leadership, and industry conditions. Let’s break it down. Growth Potential Start by asking: Is the company growing or struggling? For example, if you’re looking at Microsoft is their revenue increasing? Are they launching new products or expanding into new markets? Or are they cutting jobs and missing targets? Growth is the engine that drives stock price appreciation. Earnings Season One of the most important periods in the stock market is earnings season, which happens every quarter. This is when companies like Apple, Google, Microsoft, JP Morgan, etc., release their earnings reports. These reports reveal: Revenue & profit (compared to analyst expectations) Forward guidance (their outlook for the next quarter/year) Key financial metrics like EPS (Earnings Per Share), margins, and more Beat expectations? Stock may go up Miss expectations? Stock may drop sometimes hard What Does the Company Do? Ask: What sector is this company in, and how is that sector performing? Example: Apple sells high-end electronics. If the smartphone market is slowing down, or consumers are cutting back on big purchases, Apple’s revenue might take a hit — even if the company is still strong. Understanding the broader industry trends gives you context. Watch the Competition No company operates in a vacuum. Keep an eye on rival firms. Example: If Snap reports weak advertising revenue, that could hint at trouble for Meta (Facebook) too, since both rely heavily on digital ad dollars. Competitor performance often gives early signals. Leadership Matters A company is only as strong as the people running it. Ask yourself: Who’s the CEO and executive team? Do they have a strong track record of growth and innovation? Have there been any scandals or leadership shakeups? News about executive departures or poor leadership decisions can rattle investor confidence and move the stock price. Market News & Buyout Rumors Always keep an ear out for “market noise” , rumours, headlines, or sudden buzz. Example: When rumours emerged that Manchester United’s owners were exploring a sale, their stock spiked on speculation, even before anything official was announced. In some cases, rumours of acquisitions, partnerships, or regulatory changes can cause a big move sometimes even before earnings are reported. In Summary: Key Questions to Ask Is the company growing? How were their latest earnings? What sector are they in, and how is it performing? How are their competitors doing? Who’s running the show? Is there any buzz, news, or rumours around the company? Fundamental analysis helps you understand the “why” behind a stock’s price — and whether the price reflects the company’s true

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Fundamental Analysis for Currencies

When it comes to currencies, there’s always one big question: What makes one currency more valuable than another? After all, most currencies are just paper and digital entries. So why does one outperform the other? The basic theory is simple: The stronger a country’s economy, the stronger its currency. To measure the strength (and future potential) of an economy, traders monitor economic indicators that are released regularly. Here are some of the most important ones to watch: Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) – U.S. Only Released: First Friday of every month This is key U.S. job growth data. A higher-than-expected NFP number signals economic expansion which typically boosts the U.S. dollar (USD) against currencies like the EUR, GBP, JPY, and CHF. Retail Sales Retail sales reflect consumer spending the lifeblood of most modern economies. More spending = more confidence = growing economy = stronger currency. Weak or falling retail sales, on the other hand, may signal a slowdown. Unemployment Rate This measures the percentage of people unemployed. Rising unemployment = fewer people earning and spending = weaker economy = potential currency weakness. High unemployment also increases government spending (e.g., on benefits), putting further strain on an economy. GDP – Gross Domestic Product GDP is the big picture, it measures the total value of goods and services produced by a country. Rising GDP? Economy is growing. Good for the currency. Falling GDP? Economic trouble. Bad for the currency. CPI – Consumer Price Index (Inflation) CPI tracks the prices of everyday goods, basically it’s a measure of inflation. Rising inflation means it’s more expensive to live, which can slow down consumer spending. Controlled inflation is often a good sign, especially if wages are rising too. Central banks may react by raising rates, which usually strengthens the currency. Interest Rate Decisions Central banks set interest rates based on the state of the economy. They can either: Tighten (raise rates) to cool down inflation or an overheating economy. Attracts international capital = stronger currency. Loosen (cut rates) to stimulate growth during weak economic periods. Encourages borrowing and spending = can weaken the currency. Central Bank Press Conferences After rate decisions, central banks (like the Fed or ECB) hold press conferences to explain their outlook. Two key terms to watch for: Hawkish = aggressive tone, hints at future rate hikes = Bullish for the currency. Dovish = cautious or nervous tone, hints at rate cuts or economic concerns = Bearish for the currency. Final Thoughts Understanding these fundamental indicators gives you a big edge when trading forex. They don’t move the market every single time but over the long term, they shape the entire economic narrative behind every

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Why You Should Consider Investing in Trading

Let’s be real for a second. The idea of “investing in trading” can sound intimidating, even a little risky. Maybe you’ve heard people say, “It’s like gambling,” or “You’ll lose all your money.” But here’s the truth it doesn’t have to be that way. If you take the time to educate yourself, understand the fundamentals, and apply risk management, trading can become more than just an opportunity it can become a powerful financial tool. So, let’s break down exactly why you should consider investing in trading, especially in today’s world. 1. Your Money Should Work as Hard as You Do Leaving your money in a savings account? Sure, it’s safe… but it’s also sitting there doing next to nothing especially with inflation nibbling away at it every year. Trading gives your money potential whether it’s through short-term strategies or long-term investing in key markets. You’re putting it to work. And let’s be honest, who doesn’t want their capital to hustle a bit? 2. It’s a Skill Not a Gamble One of the biggest myths out there is that trading is all about luck. It’s not. It’s about education, discipline, and strategy. Yes, there’s risk but show me anything worthwhile that doesn’t have some level of risk. The difference is, with trading, you can learn how to manage that risk, control your exposure, and make informed decisions based on data, market trends, and economic indicators. And you don’t need to be a mathematician or have a PhD in finance. You just need the right mindset, the right tools, and a willingness to learn. 3. Access to Global Markets from Your Living Room We live in a digital world. You can now trade major global assets like currencies, commodities, stocks, and indices from your phone, tablet, or laptop. You’ve got access to opportunities all over the world, 24/5. Want to react to the latest Fed decision? Want to trade oil when OPEC announces production cuts? You can do that all from the comfort of home. The barrier to entry has never been lower. All you need is a trading account and a commitment to start. 4. You’re in Control No fund manager. No “middle man” eating up your returns with hidden fees. Just you, the charts, and your plan. With trading, you’re in the driver’s seat. You choose what to trade, when to trade, and how much to risk. You don’t have to wait for quarterly updates or watch your investment stagnate because someone else made a poor decision. It’s your capital, your strategy, your rules. 5. It Can Complement Your Other Investments Trading doesn’t mean you have to abandon your long-term goals. In fact, it can complement your existing portfolio. While your pension or savings grow slowly over the years, trading can give you more flexibility and faster exposure to market movements whether that’s forex, commodities, or stocks. Think of it as another tool in your financial toolbox. 6. The Learning Never Stops One of the most rewarding things about trading? You’re always learning. Markets evolve. Economic conditions shift. And with each trade, each analysis, each win or loss you gain experience. You grow not just as a trader, but as someone who understands how the financial world works. And that’s knowledge you can carry with you for life. Final Thoughts Look I’m not saying it’s easy. It takes time, effort, and emotional control. You’ll have ups and downs. But that’s part of the journey. If you take the time to learn, if you stay disciplined, and if you treat trading with the respect it deserves, it can absolutely be worth it. So, ask yourself: Are you ready to take control of your financial future? Because the markets are open. The tools are there. And the opportunity? It’s

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